Alright Avatars, let’s talk.

Google Stadia. Hate it or love it, or just lukewarm on the topic, the reality is that game streaming is going to be the future of game consumption on way or another. Whether that means that developers come up with a way to keep certain critical game assets downloaded to your device, and only game effects are streamed, or it’s the entire game, the fact is the sheer convenience of no longer needing physical copies (which are already obsolete), or massive hard drives, cannot be overstated. Stadia has become the face of game streaming for now, since SOMEONE had to be first, despite others in the pipeline as well. The rabbit hole of researching upcoming streaming services is a fascinating topic, especially given how divisive it is.

The Background

As an *cough* older gamer, with kids and a life outside the virtual world, I don’t want to have to deal with several consoles, a PC, downloads, TVs, cables, etc. When I have the time to sit down and game, that’s what I want to do, not look for a controller that a kid ran off with, or wait 30 minutes for an update to download. I already have enough clutter and mess in my house as it is. What the detractors of Stadia and streaming in general don’t seem to realize, is that this is the mass market that is being targeted, not the hardcore gamers that depend on absolute zero latency or unlimited FPS. Let’s look at some statistics before diving into the platforms.

The Data

A survey conducted by the ESA of over 4000 Americans was compiled and put into a report called the “2019 ESSENTIAL FACTS About the Computer and Video Game Industry” (Ref A). This report does a good job of breaking down the demographics and corresponding interests with a decent sample size, so let’s take a look.

What’s interesting is that even though the report doesn’t (and can’t really) account for things like generational mindset, male gamers in both millennial (age 18-34) and gen X (age 35-54) trend towards racing, sports, and first person shooter games. BUT, when you look at the context in how they play, that’s where some critical differences show:

• 69% of mil gamers prefer console vs 62% of gen X play on their smartphones
• 66% of mil gamers prefer to play with friends vs 40% of gen X

Side note, these stats are why people/game developers that think single player games are dead are fundamentally wrong, but that’s another topic.

Both age brackets enjoyed the same genres by far: racing, sports, and first person shooters. In contrast, when you look at female gamer trends, both age groups prefer playing casual/puzzle style games on their smartphones, with the only real differences being 45% of female mil prefer to play with friends, vs 48% of gen X preferring to play alone, which also somewhat correlates with male gamers.

What I see as the more important distinction with these numbers is that as gamers get older, it becomes a matter of convenience on what you play and how you play it. I can speak from my own experience: it’s hard to get friends available at the same time to play together, and it’s hard to find time that you can have the console/computer to yourself, ESPECIALLY with the decline of couch co-op (another travesty).

Looking at these data-sets, it’s extremely clear that there is a MASSIVE market for the aging gamer, especially for those of us that grew up with the advances in technology, and for the hardcore players that have started to age out of playing competitively. This is the target Google Stadia market.

So now that we’ve talked a little about the market, let's talk a little about the tech.

It’s Not Perfect

There are 2 major hurdles to game streaming. One is specific to Stadia, and the other is in relation to game streaming as a whole:

1. Latency
2. Stadia as a unique platform

Google is a giant in the tech space. Everyone knows this. The amount of data and information they have can topple governments or destroy economies. We live in the information age, after all. If there was a company that has the fortitude and infrastructure to make game streaming successful, it’s Google.

Th biggest detracting factor to streaming is the latency. There’s no getting around the fact that even if you are just a casual player, when you press a button or move a joystick, you expect the corresponding action to happen on screen. If there’s too much of a delay; it’s like trying to throw a baseball underwater. There is an inherent delay already in your internet connection, which is referred to as your ping rate, but unlike with watching videos or browsing the web, you can’t buffer a game stream to hide this delay. What so many people seem to purposefully ignore, is that this latency is going to become a smaller and smaller problem in the next year or two. You have to view this technology as what is GOING to become, and not judge it based on where it is now.

An Unstoppable Force

Google is already in the process of upgrading infrastructure on its own. More fiber networks are going in, and 5G is on the cusp of being released. This is the key that I don’t see people talking about.

The way that Stadia and game streaming will survive is how Google sees it as an introduction to get a customer into the pipeline of other Google services.

Imagine if you were also a Google Fi cell phone customer, and Google offers reduced cost/free data for streaming on that network. Couple that with 5G, and latency/data cap issues are going to disappear quickly. What if you have access to a fiber network, and your choice is between another ISP and Google, but if you choose Google, you are guaranteed less ping because streaming packets are given higher priority?

Streaming is absolutely the future, and it's going to render consoles obsolete one way or another, in probably 5-6 years. I believe that this is likely the last console generation, although premium PC builds will still be viable, especially for those that don't want to worry about wireless connections and as fiber connections become more mainstream. With the rise of Twitch and other broadcasting platforms, fast and stable connections will become even more essential for those that want to start broadcasting as a career (or a hobby), but the convenience of pulling out a phone to go a few rounds on COD or Halo while waiting for dinner to be done, can't be understated.

But Wait, There’s More

Going beyond just the older casual gaming market as discussed before, let’s look at the woefully underestimated kids gaming market as well. I’ll speak anecdotally about my own experience with this, because I feel incredibly strongly about it, and I believe it will resonate with the same crowd of older millennials that I see as the main market for Stadia.

Agree or disagree, technology permeates all aspects of our lives, at younger and younger ages. My 4 year old can run a tablet as easily as she can play with any of her other toys. What game streaming is going to bring to the table is the opportunity to play games with their kids, without the need for a completely new system. Cell phones are already so commonplace for older kids, and if parents don't have to shell out more money for a laptop or PC for each kid, or want to keep those strictly for schoolwork, then this is that chance. This becomes even more important as couch co-op continues to decline, and players are required to log in and have an entire profile made, just to play a few multiplayer matches together.

That Second Hurdle

Stadia is not just a game streaming service, it’s a completely new platform. That means that titles you have bought and collected on other platforms such as Steam are not directly accessible. To me, this is a HUGE issue. Google is making a major mistake by thinking that gamers are going to want to purchase titles unique to play on only one platform. It’s also where I see it being odd that Google wouldn’t realize this, since the appeal of game streaming is the freedom to play what you want, when and where you want. Making it a code unique platform seems antithetical to this.

But it seems there is hope. The news that Steam is now coming to Google Chrome is a huge indicator that Google is aware of limiting their potential customer base by making them purchase games on Stadia (Ref B). I think it’s the first step in making Stadia an “access” service, not a “platform” service. This is where I hope the executives realize the point that I made earlier, that even though Google might “lose” some potential profit by not offering to sell full priced titles on Stadia, there is potential to get them in the Google pipeline of products if they offer incentives that would make Stadia irresistible. By getting more customers in the Google suite, it gives them more access to the most profitable resource of all: your customer information (Hello targeted ads $$$).

TL;DR

Stadia is in its VERY early stages, but I think it is going to become as mainstream as YouTube in the next few years. There are downsides to the tech, the biggest being latency issues, but this is not insurmountable, and the improvements needed are on the horizon. The market for casual players and family co-op play is HUGE, and as long as Stadia makes the change to allow access to existing game libraries that are already known, trusted, and well liked (i.e. Steam), then I think Google is going to dominate and make Stadia as synonymous with game streaming as Googling is to searching the internet.

References

A: https://www.theesa.com/esa-research/2019-essential-facts-about-the-computer-and-video-game-industry/

B: https://www.pcgamer.com/steam-is-coming-to-googles-chrome-os/